In the access market at 7 pm gold and silver are the following :
gold: $1360.20.
silver: $22.26
The bankers showed up early ready to attack gold and silver and their attack was fierce with copious non backed gold/silver paper. It seems that in the past 8 months,83% of Friday's resulted in raids. The demand for physical remains off the charts as premiums in India and China remain very high. Yet these criminals continue to drive the paper price lower much to the delight of citizens of Eastern persuasion.
At the Comex, the open interest in silver rose by 1745 contracts to 146,411 contracts despite silver's fall on Wednesday. The silver OI is holding firm at elevated levels . The open interest on the gold contract rose by 1445 contracts to 445,251 . With gold's big fall in price on Wednesday, one would have thought that the OI would have contracted big time. The gold deliveries for May rose considerably today to 9.365 tonnes and this is an off month for gold. In silver we continue to see the total number of ounces standing rise above the quantity that stood on first day notice. The number of silver ounces, standing for delivery in May fell a tiny 180,000 oz now stands at 17.180 million oz. ( On first day notice: 14.860 million oz.)
Again, at the Comex, gold is departing as investors are frightened to death of a confiscation similar to what happened at MFGlobal or Refco. Tonight, the Comex registered or dealer gold plummeted to 1.668 million oz or 51.88 tonnes. The total of all gold at the comex fell slightly but still well below the 8 million oz at 7.966 million oz or 247.77 tonnes of gold.
The GLD reported a huge loss in gold inventory of 5.71 tonnes which followed yesterday's loss of 4.52 tonnes of gold. The SLV inventory of silver also lowered by 1.545 million oz. The game will end when the last ounce of gold from the GLD leaves London's shores for Chinese waters.
In other physical news, we are witnessing continual increase in premiums for physical bars as the physical price deviates from the paper gold price.
Steve D'Angelo has reported that the exports of gold from the USA in January and February amounted to 130 tonnes of gold. The USA only produces 40 tonnes of gold. You should note that in January and February, the Comex and Mints recorded demand of 50.8 tonnes of gold. And we have not factored in any jewellery demand. The only answer as to why exports of gold are greater than mine supply is the use of official or Fort Knox gold. There is no other explanation!!
We will go over these and other stories but first.....................
The total gold comex open interest fell by only 256 contracts from 445,251 down to 444,995 with gold falling by $9.40 on Thursday. One would have thought that the OI would have contracted big time as positions would have liquidated at the lower gold price. The front non active delivery month of May saw its OI fall by 80 contracts up to 1067. However we had 88 delivery notice filed on Thursday. Thus we gained 8 contracts or 800 additional gold ounces will stand for delivery in May. The next active contract month is June and here the OI fell by 6899 contracts to 191,054 as most of these paper players rolled into August. June is the second biggest delivery month in gold's calender and first day notice is less than 2 weeks away. The estimated volume on Friday was good at 231,248 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday was also good at 248,573 contracts.
The total silver Comex OI surprisingly rise fell by only 140 contracts from 146,411 down to 146,271 with silver's fall in price of 3 cents on Thursday. The front active silver delivery month of May saw it's OI fall by 30 contracts down to 499. We had 27 delivery notices filed on Thursday so we lost 3 contracts or 15,000 oz will not stand for delivery in May. The next delivery month for silver is June and here the OI rose by 15 contracts to stand at 386. The next big active contract month is July and here the OI fell by only 265 contracts to rest tonight at 80,347. The estimated volume on Friday was good, coming in at 37,635 contracts. The confirmed volume on Thursday was good at 48,487.
Comex gold/May contract month:
We had 1 customer deposit today:
i) Into Scotia vault: 65.425.336 oz
total customer deposit: 65,425.336 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals today:
i Out of Scotia: 64,209.512 oz
ii) Out of Brinks; 450.01 oz
1961 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 196,100 oz (served) + 1058 notices or 105,800 oz (to be served upon) = 301,900 oz or 9.39 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely high for a non active month. We gained 800 additional gold ounces standing for the May comex gold contract today.
It is also interesting that the USA produces around 20 tonnes of gold per month
and thus the amount standing for gold this month represents almost 47% of that total production.
The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will watch what happens with JPMorgan with respect to its customer gold remains (now at 9.25 tonnes of gold) and the entire comex dealer gold close its nadir at 1.676 million oz.(52.13 tonnes)
May 17/2013
Ounces
| |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
|
64,659.522 (Scotia,Brinks)
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz
|
nil
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
| 65,425.336 (Scotia) |
No of oz served (contracts) today
|
9 (900 oz)
|
No of oz to be served (notices)
|
1058 (105,800)
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
|
1961 (196,100)
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
|
10,656.61
|
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
| 602,966.0 oz |
We had good activity at the gold vaults.
The dealer had 0 deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.
We had 1 customer deposit today:
i) Into Scotia vault: 65.425.336 oz
total customer deposit: 65,425.336 oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals today:
i Out of Scotia: 64,209.512 oz
ii) Out of Brinks; 450.01 oz
We had 0 adjustments
The JPMorgan customer vault remains at 297,426.75 oz today or 9.25 tonnes
as there were no transactions
The JPMorgan customer vault remains at 297,426.75 oz today or 9.25 tonnes
as there were no transactions
Tonight the dealer inventory dramatically remains tonight at a low of 1.668 million oz (51.88) tonnes of gold. The total of all gold rises slightly at the comex resting tonight at 7.967 million oz or 247.80 tonnes.
The CME reported that we had 9 notices filed today for 900 oz of gold.
To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May (1067) and subtract out today's notices (9) which leaves us with 1058 notices or 105,800 oz left to be served upon our longs.
To calculate the quantity of gold ounces that will stand, I take the OI standing for May (1067) and subtract out today's notices (9) which leaves us with 1058 notices or 105,800 oz left to be served upon our longs.
Thus we have the following gold ounces standing for metal in May:
1961 contracts x 100 oz per contract or 196,100 oz (served) + 1058 notices or 105,800 oz (to be served upon) = 301,900 oz or 9.39 tonnes of gold.
This is extremely high for a non active month. We gained 800 additional gold ounces standing for the May comex gold contract today.
It is also interesting that the USA produces around 20 tonnes of gold per month
and thus the amount standing for gold this month represents almost 47% of that total production.
The big June delivery month will surely be exciting to watch judging by the huge demand for gold in May. We will watch what happens with JPMorgan with respect to its customer gold remains (now at 9.25 tonnes of gold) and the entire comex dealer gold close its nadir at 1.676 million oz.(52.13 tonnes)
end
Silver:
May 16.2013: May silver:
| Silver |
Ounces
|
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | 549,652.39 (CNT) |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 307,320.634 oz (Delaware,Scotia) |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1019.90 (Delaware) |
| No of oz served (contracts) | 127 (635,000) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 502 (2,510,000 oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 2934 (14,670,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | 753,750.04 oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month | 2,839,070.2 oz |
Today, we had tiny activity inside the silver vaults.
we had 0 dealer deposits and 0 dealer withdrawals.
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit; nil oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit; nil oz
We had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Scotia: 636,447.70 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 2015.40 oz
total customer withdrawals: 638,463.100 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 2015.40 oz
total customer withdrawals: 638,463.100 oz
we had 0 adjustments today
Registered silver at : 43.902 million oz
total of all silver: 164.876 million oz.
The CME reported that we had 127 notices filed for 635,000 oz. To calculate the number of ounces that will stand in silver, I take the OI standing for May (529) and subtract out today's notices (27) which leaves us with 502 notices or 2,510,000 oz
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this active delivery month of May is as follows:
2934 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 14,670,000 + 502 contracts x 5000 oz = 2,510,000 oz ( to be served) = 17,186,000 oz.
we lost 180,000 oz of silver standing for May today. The total standing for silver is still superb for May.
Thus the total number of silver ounces standing in this active delivery month of May is as follows:
2934 contracts x 5000 oz per contract (served) = 14,670,000 + 502 contracts x 5000 oz = 2,510,000 oz ( to be served) = 17,186,000 oz.
we lost 180,000 oz of silver standing for May today. The total standing for silver is still superb for May.
end
The two ETF's that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.
There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:
May 17.2013: (as of 6 pm est)
May 15.2013:
may 14.2013:
May 10.2013:
May 8.2013:
may 7.2013:
May 6.2013:
May 3.2013:
May 2.2013:
May 1.2013:
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. As you can see, the bleeding of physical gold from this locale continues unabated. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks)
Now let us check on gold inventories at the GLD first:
May 17.2013: (as of 6 pm est)
Tonnes1,038.41
Ounces33,386,040.80
Value US$45.683 billion
Tonnes1,041.42
Ounces33,482,727.36
Value US$46.226 billlion
May 15.2013:
Tonnes1,047.13
Ounces33,666,434.30
Value US$47.457 billion
may 14.2013:
Tonnes1,051.65
Ounces33,811,468.47
Value US$48.465 billion
May 13.2013:
Tonnes1,051.65
Ounces33,811,468.47
Value US$48.364 billion
May 10.2013:
Tonnes1,051.65
Ounces33,811,468.47
Value US$48.222 billion
May 9.2013:
Tonnes1,054.18
Ounces33,892,812.62
Value US$49.641 billion
May 8.2013:
Tonnes1,051.47
Ounces33,805,784.75
Value US$49.598 billion
may 7.2013:
Tonnes1,057.79
Ounces34,008,852.21
Value US$49.089 billion
May 6.2013:
Tonnes1,062.30
Ounces34,153,900.65
Value US$50.153 billion
May 3.2013:
Tonnes1,065.61
Ounces34,260,271.68
Value US$50.311 billion
May 2.2013:
Tonnes1,069.21
Ounces34,376,316.61
Value US$50.482 billion
May 1.2013:
Tonnes1,075.23
Ounces34,569,726.95
Value US$50.265 billion
The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. As you can see, the bleeding of physical gold from this locale continues unabated. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks)
As a reminder the total comex gold had inventories of around 11 million oz in 2011. Today it rose a bit and now stands at 7.966 million oz (247.77 tonnes)
end
May 17/2013
May 16.203:
May 17/2013
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 329,631,679.700 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,252.69 |
May 16.203:
And now for silver SLV inventories (as of 6 pm est)
May 15:2013:
May 14.2013:
May 13.2013:
May 10.2013:
May 9.2013:
may 8.2013
may 7.2013:
May 6.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 334,121,683.000 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,392.35 |
May 15:2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,666,675.000 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,440.40 |
May 14.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,666,675.000 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,440.40 |
May 13.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,666,675.000 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,440.40 |
May 10.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,666,675.000 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,440.40 |
May 9.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,666,675.000 |
may 8.2013
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,376,960.800 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,431.39 |
may 7.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,376,960.800 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,431.39 |
May 6.2013:
| Inception Date | 4/21/2006 |
| Ounces of Silver in Trust | 335,376,960.800 |
| Tonnes of Silver in Trust | 10,431.39 |
Today we lost a rather large 4.49 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults.
And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at negative 5.3% percent to NAV in usa funds and a negative 5.1% to NAV for Cdn funds. ( May 17/13)
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at negative 5.3% percent to NAV in usa funds and a negative 5.1% to NAV for Cdn funds. ( May 17/13)
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV fell to -0.55% NAV May 17/2013
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV fell to- .71% positive to NAV May 17/ 2013
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV fell to- .71% positive to NAV May 17/ 2013
end
At 3:30 pm Friday, they released the COT report.
Let us head over to the gold COT and see what we can glean from it;
(courtesy Goldseek.com)
COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - May 17, 2013
-- Posted Friday, 17 May 2013 | | Comment - New!
Gold COT Report - Futures Large Speculators Commercial Total Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short 186,921 103,195 25,713 190,502 274,648 403,136 403,556 Change from Prior Reporting Period -2,422 3,275 1,862 3,831 258 3,271 5,395 Traders 131 102 70 61 59 222 208 Small Speculators Long Short Open Interest 40,670 40,250 443,806 2,604 480 5,875 non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period COT Gold Report - Positions as of Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Our large speculators:
Those large specs that have been long in gold, pitched 2422 contracts from their long side
Those large specs that have been short in gold added another 3275 contracts to their short side.
Our commercials;
Those commercials that are long in gold and close to the physical scene added a rather large 3831
contracts to their long side.
Those commercials that are short in gold added only a tiny 258 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in gold added 2604 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in gold added 480 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions:
If you believe the figures, the commercials went net long again by 3573 contracts.
And now for our silver COT:
Silver COT Report - Futures Large Speculators Commercial Total Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short 35,690 24,896 22,992 66,717 79,935 125,399 127,823 -144 2,713 -773 1,014 -224 97 1,716 Traders 58 49 47 39 39 122 117 Small Speculators Long Short Open Interest 19,267 16,843 144,666 413 -1,206 510 non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period COT Silver Report - Positions as of Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Our large speculators:
Those large specs that have been long in silver covered a very tiny 144 contracts from their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver added a large 2713 contracts to their short side
Our commercials':
Those commercials that have been long in silver added 1014 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in silver covered 224 contracts from their short side
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in silver added 413 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 1206 contracts from their short side.
Conclusions: if you believe these figures:
the commercials went net long again by 1238 contracts.
end
end
At 3:30 pm Friday, they released the COT report.
Let us head over to the gold COT and see what we can glean from it;
(courtesy Goldseek.com)
Our large speculators:
Those large specs that have been long in silver covered a very tiny 144 contracts from their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver added a large 2713 contracts to their short side
Our commercials':
Those commercials that have been long in silver added 1014 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in silver covered 224 contracts from their short side
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in silver added 413 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 1206 contracts from their short side.
Conclusions: if you believe these figures:
the commercials went net long again by 1238 contracts.
end
At 3:30 pm Friday, they released the COT report.
Let us head over to the gold COT and see what we can glean from it;
(courtesy Goldseek.com)
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Those large specs that have been long in silver covered a very tiny 144 contracts from their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver added a large 2713 contracts to their short side
Our commercials':
Those commercials that have been long in silver added 1014 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in silver covered 224 contracts from their short side
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in silver added 413 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 1206 contracts from their short side.
Conclusions: if you believe these figures:
the commercials went net long again by 1238 contracts.
end
And now for the major physical stories we faced today:
Early gold/silver trading from Asia and Europe early Friday morning
(courtesy Goldcore)
-- Posted Friday, 17 May 2013 | | 3 Comments  Today’s AM fix was USD 1,376.75, EUR 1,069.15 and GBP 903.62 per ounce. Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,377.00, EUR 1,070.01 and GBP 904.32 per ounce.  Cross Currency Table – (Bloomberg) Gold fell $6.00 or -0.43% yesterday to $1,386.70/oz and silver finished +0.71%. Nothing has changed regarding the positive fundamentals of the physical gold market. All that has changed is that the price of gold is again lower due to the machinations of technical traders and speculators. Paper gold sales are again trumping massive physical demand however this cannot go on for much longer and the patient will again be handsomely rewarded. U.S. markets are again having a wild party and all speculators are invited. Stocks are at an all-time high, the country is basking in its new found energy ‘independence,’ there is a perception that the housing market is showing green shoots of recovery and the great bellwether, the employment numbers, showed better than expected gains in April. Tragically, it appears, the U.S. and other investors are again borrowing to buy stocks, confident that prices can only go in only one direction. All of this euphoria can be traced to the monetary expansion policies of the U.S. Fed and across the sea to Europe to the Bank of England and the ECB, and over to Japan and the ‘la la land’ of ‘Abenomics’. Does history repeat itself? Can we learn from money printing throughout history? Of course we can. Global currency debasement on a scale never before seen in history will not end well - for savers and most investors. Currency wars are set to continue and deepen which will support gold. The United States government is to rigorously enforce a ban on gold sales to Iran from July 1. They are planning to block sales of gold to Iranians in order to undermine the Iranian currency, the rial, and to step up pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program, U.S. officials said yesterday according to Reuters and Bloomberg. The Iranian rial is the official currency of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The conventional market quotation is the number of rials per U.S. dollar. The rial is a fiat currency which like most paper currencies today is a managed, floating currency. The Central Bank of Iran has abolished the multi-tier exchange rate regime and established a single rate in its place.  U.S. Dollar and Iranian Rial (USDIRR) Spot Exchange Rate - Price of 1 USD in IRR– 5 Years The U.S. will now ban sales of gold by anyone to either the Iranian government or to Iranian citizens, a senior U.S. Treasury official said yesterday. Washington has warned Iran's neighbours Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, key regional centers of the gold trade, to stop gold sales to Iran, said David Cohen, treasury under-secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence. "We have been very clear with the governments of Turkey and the UAE and elsewhere, as well as the private sector that is involved in the gold trade, that as of July 1 all must stop, not just trade to the government," he said. Cohen told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the U.S. government continues to find new ways to isolate Iran from the international financial system. "In particular, we are looking carefully at actions that could increase pressure on the value of the rial," he said. "One thing that we have seen in the course of the last year is when the rial depreciates and depreciates rapidly, that begins to create a dynamic in Iran that has an effect.” The rial has lost 34% against the dollar since 2008 having fallen from 9135 rial per $1.00 to 12258 per $1.00 today. The dollar has fallen by 52% against gold in the same period having fallen from $920/oz to $1,380/oz.  XAU/USD Spot Exchange Rate - Price of 1 XAU in USD – 5 Years Iranian people are suffering from the currency devaluation with the very significant increase in the cost of living. "It has an effect on the elites and their perception of how the country is behaving." The move to block gold sales is part of the effort to further weaken the rial, he explained. "There's a tremendous demand for gold among private Iranian citizens, which in some respects is an indication of the success of our sanctions." "They are dumping their rials to buy gold as a way to try to preserve their wealth. That is I think an indication that they recognise that the value of their currency is declining." Cohen and another senior official, U.S. State Department Under Secretary for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, told the committee that sanctions were having a deep impact on Tehran. He said a ban on oil exports was costing Tehran between USD 3 and 5 billion a month and caused the economy to contract by as much as eight percent last year. Sherman said 14 out of 20 importers of Iranian oil have ended their purchases, and the other six -- China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan -- have significantly reduced their imports. "We are continuing, of course, to press them for further significant reductions as is required under the law," she told the committee. Senator Robert Menendez, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and sponsor of several Iran sanctions laws questioned whether the administration is doing enough to enforce its own prohibitions on Iran’s gold trade issued last summer. He cited estimates in a report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Roubini Global Economics that Iran has imported more than $6 billion in gold, mainly from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, since the administration’s ban on gold trade with Iran’s government took effect last summer. That’s equivalent to about 10% of Iran’s 2012 oil exports of $60 billion, Menendez said. “We are actively enforcing” the gold ban, Cohen said. “We have been very clear with countries that are exporting gold to Iran, principally Turkey and the UAE, on precisely what the law permits and what it forbids, and we are following the information very carefully.” Cohen reminded lawmakers that this July 1, the ban will extend to private sales. To date, though, the administration hasn’t penalized any entity in Turkey or the UAE for trading in gold with the Iranian government. This is another manifestation of the war on gold. Central banks and their minion banks have won the recent battles but the finite money par excellence gold and owners of physical gold will again win the war as they have throughout history. GOLDCORE https://www.goldcore.com end This is an very important commentary from Steve St Angelo, of the SRSrocco report. During the first two months of January and February 2013, the uSA exported 130 metric tonnes of gold from USA soil. The USA produces 240 tonnes of gold per year and thus over these two months in question, 40 tonnes was produced by all USA mines. I went back to my last commentary in February where I reported that 40.68 tonnes of gold stood for the February delivery month. January saw 3.01 tonnes of gold standing for delivery. In January the USA mint produced 150,000 oz of gold or 4.66 tonnes. In February, 80,000 oz were minted or 2.48 tonnes. Thus in summary; January gold standing for delivery: Feb gold standing for delivery: 3.01 tonnes 40.68 tonnes |
January Mint sales: Feb Mint sales:
4.66 tones 2.48 tonnes
Totals for January totals for February totals for both months:
7.67 tonnes 43.16 tonnes 50.83 tonnes
The mines produced 40 tonnes of gold.
And yet they exported 130 tonnes?
We thus have 130 tonnes of exported gold + 50.83 tonnes of gold demand from the Mints and Comex and we still have demand from jewellers. The supply: only 40 tonnes.
Thus, without jewellery demand, we must have a supply of 140 tonnes of gold coming from the official sector i.e. Fort Knox.
This is a crime scene!!
(courtesy Steve StAngelo)
U.S. Gold Exports: Almost 130 Metric Tonnes During Jan-Feb, 2013
-- Posted Friday, 17 May 2013 | Share this article | Comment - New!
by Steve St.Angelo, SRSrocco Report,
There seems to be a great deal of the yellow metal heading out of the United States andinto certain foreign countries lately. According to the USGS, theUnited States exported 129 metric tonnes of gold Jan-Feb, 2013. At this rate, total U.S. gold exports could reach 700-800 metric tonnes this year. With the recent take-down in the price of gold in April & May, I wouldimagine the United States is more than likely going to reach that figure.
If we look atthe chart below we can see just who received all this gold:
The figuresin the chart represent gold in refined bullion, Dore' & precipitates. The U.K. received 7.4 metric tonnes in Jan and 11.5 more in Feb for atotal of 18.9 metric tonnes. Hong Kong came in second by importing atotal of 40 metric tonnes (Jan-Feb) from the United States, while Switzerlandreceived 43.5 metric tonnes.
In total, theUnited States exported 129 metric tonnes of gold in the first two months of2013. The U.K, Hong Kong and Switzerland accounted for 102.4 metrictonnes or nearly 80% of all U.S. Gold exports during these two months.
Furthermore,the U.S. only imported 50 metric tonnes of gold during this time period,while domestic gold production supplied an additional 35 more. With a total of 85 metric tonnes of gold imports and domestic mine supply, theUnited States suffered a net deficit of 44 metric tonnes in the first twomonths of the year.
If the rumorsare true that supplies of gold are in short supply, I would imagine the UnitedStates will be exported a record amount of gold during the remainder of 2013... that is, if there is the available gold to export.
|
end
As I have stated to you in the past, it is impossible to use technical analysis when you have a manipulated market
(courtesy John Rubino/)
(courtesy John Rubino/)
'Fundamentals always win eventually' -- but who will define 'eventually'?
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2013-05-17 02:46. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:41p ET Thursday, May 16, 2013
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst John Rubino remarks tonight on the futility of technical analysis in a manipulated market like gold.
Rubino writes: "When big players with regulatory immunity can move an asset's price -- and can see resistance/support levels and moving averages just as clearly as anyone else -- smaller traders don't stand a chance."
"Fundamentals always win eventually," he adds, and maybe they do, but the question lately on the minds of gold investors may be whether fundamentals always win within the course of a normal human lifespan. As long as many gold investors -- including some very big ones -- buy paper gold, which can be created to infinity, instead of real metal; as long as the gold mining industry is so oblivious to the rigging of the price of its product and does nothing to defend itself; and as long as mainstream financial news organizations have no interest in committing actual journalism, central banks won't have to worry about any threat to their totalitarian power.
Those are the variables on which GATA continues to work.
Rubino's commentary is headlined "Golden Bullseye" and it's posted at 24hGold here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc
And now your more important paper stories which will influence the price of gold and silver:
Your overnight sentiment
Major points:
1. Bank repayments of the LTRO to the ECB trickle almost to a halt at 1 billion euros on both advances as the ECB ponders whether to introduce negative interest rates and truly cause danger to our insolvent eurozone banks.
2. The ECB does not need any more balance sheet contraction.
3. EU construction output fell badly for the 5th consecutive month at -1.7% compared to -.3% the month before. (m/m) Clearly the Eurozone is in a deep recession. The drop from last year (y/y) is 7.9%
4. As indicated from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard article yesterday Spain seems to be becoming more labour competitive. It's trade report showed a surplus in March of .63 billion Euros. It exports rose a tiny 2% from last year(20 billion euros). However imports fell badly by 15% to 19.7 billion euros
as consumption dries up as citizens just do not have the money to spend. Thus Spain is contracting despite a tiny improvement in one entry in GDP calculation, ie. the trade balance.
The lower euro is also certainly helping Spain's exports to the outside world.
5. On the negative side of things for Spain is the March reported bad loan ratios coming in at 10.5% up from 10.4% in February. This puts additional problems on the Spanish banks and this is the big time bomb facing Spain.
6. The key sentence that we should be mindful of courtesy of Japanese Prime Minister Abe:
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe acknowledged that sharp increases in long-term interest rates could increase the national debt burden. He declined to comment on the recent rise in JGB yields saying that doing so "could risk causing the markets unnecessary confusion”
7. Details from Bloomberg.Soc Gen and Jim Reid of Deutsche bank
(courtesy zero hedge/Soc Gen and Jim Reid of Deutsche bank)
Dull Overnight Session Set To Become Even Duller Day Session
- Australian Dollar
- Bank of England
- Bank of Japan
- Ben Bernanke
- BOE
- Bond
- China
- Consumer Confidence
- Copper
- CPI
- Crude
- Dell
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Fisher
- Fitch
- fixed
- Gross Domestic Product
- headlines
- Hong Kong
- Housing Starts
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Investment Grade
- Japan
- JC Penney
- Jim Reid
- John Williams
- LTRO
- National Debt
- Nikkei
- Philly Fed
- Precious Metals
- ratings
- San Francisco Fed
- SocGen
- Stress Test
- Turkey
Those hoping for a slew of negative news to push stocks much higher today will be disappointed in this largely catalyst-free day. So far today we have gotten only the ECB's weekly 3y LTRO announcement whereby seven banks will repay a total of €1.1 billion from both LTRO issues, as repayments slow to a trickle because the last thing the ECB, which was rumored to be inquiring banks if they can handle negative deposit rates earlier in the session, needs is even more balance sheet contraction. The biggest economic European economic data point was the EU construction output which contracted for a fifth consecutive month, dropping -1.7% compared to -0.3% previously, and tumbled 7.9% from a year before.
Elsewhere, Spain announced trade data for March, which printed at yet another surplus of €0.63 billion, prompted not so much by soaring exports which rose a tiny 2% from a year ago to €20.3 billion but due to a collapse in imports of 15% to €19.7 billion - a further sign that the Spanish economy is truly contracting even if the ultimate accounting entry will be GDP positive. More importantly for Spain, the country reported a March bad loan ratio - which has been persistently underreproted - at 10.5% up from 10.4% in February. We will have more to say on why this is the latest and greatest ticking timebomb for the Eurozone shortly.
Perhaps the most amusing news of the day was Japan's report of a surge in machine orders in March, up 14.2% on estimates of 3.5% - the biggest one month rise since January 2003. We say amusing because preliminary data from a CapIQ run on capex spending by Japanese firms indicates some very, very different. If we have time we will present that after China, Japan appears to be the next major sovereign fabricator of data.
And so we look to the US trading session, where volumes are on par to be absolutely abysmal once again with traders starting to leave early for the Hamptons, and with the only data point later is the UMich confidence print (consensus 78.0).
Other key overnight headlines in bulletin format from Bloomberg:
- Treasuries rise amid gains for global bond markets; gold fell for 7th straight day in worst slump since 2009
- San Francisco Fed President John Williams said quickening economic growth and gains in the job market may prompt the Fed in the next few months to start reducing its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying
- Abe said he will increase private investment and infrastructure exports as he seeks to overcome deflation and build on an economic expansion fueled by rising consumer spending
- Investors are more confident in a Japanese leader than any time since at least September 2010, with optimism about Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s policies exceeding that for counterparts in the U.S., Europe and China
- China cuts red tape, allowing 117 investment projects, including those for airports, paper pulp factories and gas fields, to go ahead without pre-approval from the nation’s economic planning agency. Move is part of government’s pledge to reduce role in economy
- ECB is set to take center stage as the euro area’s chief banking supervisor, after the European Banking Authority ditched this year’s stress test in favor of an ECB-led review of lenders’ asset quality; stress tests to take place next year
- European car sales rose 1.8% from a year earlier, the first rise in 19 months, led by German and Spanish car registrations; 4-mo. sales -7%
- Turkey’s bonds rallied, sending yields to all-time lows, after Moody’s Investors Service raised the country to investment grade for the first time in two decades, fueling expectation of capital inflows. The lira weakened on speculation the central bank will cut rates
- Sovereign yields lower. Asian stocks higher, with Nikkei +0.6%, Shanghai Composite +1.4%. European stocks and U.S. stock-index futures higher; WTI crude, copper rise; gold lower
Key daily catalysts from SocGen:
The collapse in base and precious metals stands out, but soft commodities have been pretty badly hit too. Losses were trimmed somewhat late yesterday from the worst levels of the week following a disappointing set of US data, including a very intriguing weekly claims number (up 30k over the past week, no distortions) and a weak Philly Fed survey. The USD did take a brief knock, but the subsequent bounce back suggests market participants are in no mood to desert the greenback. Having said that, the dollar index failed to close above 84.0 and another failure to do so at the weekly close tonight will have bears wringing their hands over a potential repeat of July last year. Then, the failure to close above 84.0 heralded a 6.5% drop over the next six weeks.
Separately, the drop in US CPI to 1.1% yoy in April came before the USD breakout in May and thus suggests that a further softening in price pressure is possible in the months to come, in particular with petrol prices falling back. The decline in core yields (and swaps) that started on Wednesday accelerated yesterday and occurred independently from stocks, which have done extremely well all week to shrug off a mixed set of macro data. The 9bp collapse in 2y bund yields of the last 48 hours (back into negative territory) is nothing short of spectacular and shows investors’ still conflicting views about stocks and bonds. Technically, the equity market is looking toppy, with for example the divergence between the S&P and the put/call open interest suggesting that a retracement in the major equity indices lies ahead.
The ECB will today publish the weekly LTRO repayment amounts and no less than four members of the governing council are scheduled to speak. We also get Canadian CPI and BoE member Weale may rein in his dovish position following this week’s more upbeat Inflation Report. The correction in metals and talk of central bank/fund switches out of AUD and into CAD saw AUD/CAD drop below 1.0050. This was followed by a break below parity overnight. A break of 0.9942 would bring 0.9683 in play.
Full event recap from DB's Jim Reid:
An interesting day for the S&P500 which found support at the mid-1650s level for much of the trading session despite a raft of disappointing economic data in the US. Indeed, it wasn’t until the final hour of the session that the index broke out of its tight intra-day range to close near the day’s lows of -0.5%. The weak close coincided with some hawkish sounding comments from the San Francisco Fed President John Williams who said that the Fed could reduce somewhat the pace of securities purchases perhaps as early as this summer. He added that the Fed “could end the purchase program sometime late this year”. What was less reported was that Williams qualified his statement with a “if all goes as hoped” caveat. He also added that it will take further (labour market) gains to convince him that the “substantial improvement” test for ending asset purchases had been met.
There were also hawkish comments from the Fed’s Fisher, Plosser and Lacker earlier in the session who advocated for a slowing of MBS purchases.
More on the data flow, yesterday’s batch of US data showed weakness in jobs, housing and inflation. Initial jobless claims came in at 360k (vs 330k expected) which took the 4week average on claims to 339k. Housing starts printed at 853k (vs 970k expected) but building permits of 1017k beat expectations of 941k. In terms of the business outlook, the Philly Fed index disappointed at -5.2 (vs 2.0 expected) which was consistent with a soft Empire manufacturing survey earlier this week. The US CPI was also below forecasts across the headline (-0.4% vs - 0.3%) and core (0.1% vs 0.2%).
Fedspeak and data aside, below-consensus earnings from consumer companies such as Walmart, Dell and JC Penney also weighed on equities. Nine out of 10 S&P500 industry sectors finished in the red led by declines in consumer services (-1.2%), health (-1.1%) and utilities (-0.8%). Only the technology sector finished
higher – helped by a 13% gain in Cisco after they reported consensus-beating quarterly earnings. The USD index finished the day 0.3% lower, but the comments from Williams saw the USD retrace much of its losses towards the end of the day.
higher – helped by a 13% gain in Cisco after they reported consensus-beating quarterly earnings. The USD index finished the day 0.3% lower, but the comments from Williams saw the USD retrace much of its losses towards the end of the day.
In the fixed income space it also was interesting to see the outperformance of the CDX IG index relative to equities, which helped unwind some of credit’s recent underperformance. The investment grade index finished basically unchanged at 71.5bp despite the negative day for US equities. In the govvies space, core bond yields were around 5-6bp firmer across the board reflecting weaker risk sentiment. Moving to the overnight markets, Asian equities are trading with a stronger tone even with the negative lead-in from the US. Most indices are up a quarter to half a percent including the Nikkei, ASX200 and Shanghai Composite. Volumes are subdued with Korean and Hong Kong markets shut for Buddha’s Birthday holidays.
The Australian dollar slipped below US98c in the Asian session to reach a near 12-month low, and gold continues to lose ground (-0.5%) as it inches lower to the recent lows seen in April.
JGBs remains in focus amid reports that the Bank of Japan will discuss the related risks and potential effects of its 2% inflation target and a surge in long-term rates at its two-day policy meeting next week (Nikkei). Prime Minister Shinzo Abe acknowledged that sharp increases in long-term interest rates could increase the national debt burden. He declined to comment on the recent rise in JGB yields saying that doing so "could risk causing the markets unnecessary confusion” (Dow Jones). 10yr JGB yields are unchanged overnight at 0.81%. In the EM space, Moody’s upgraded Turkey’s ratings to investment grade (Baa3 from Ba1) overnight, in a decision that was somewhat long-awaited. The rating is equivalent to that of Fitch who upgraded Turkey to investment grade last November. Moodys last rated Turkey investment grade in 1992. In its commentary, Moody’s said that progress on structural and institutional reforms that Moody's expects will reduce existing vulnerabilities to shocks and improving financial metrics.
Turning to the day ahead, the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey is the main data point on the calendar. In terms of central bank speakers, The Fed’s Kocherlakota and the the ECB’s Coeure and Asmussen are scheduled to speak today. On Saturday, Bernanke will deliver a commencement speech at Bard College in Massachusetts titled “Economic Prospects for the Long Run”.
end
Bill Gross: "We See Bubbles Everywhere"
- Alan Greenspan
- Bank of Japan
- Bear Market
- Ben Bernanke
- Bill Gross
- Bond
- Central Banks
- Federal Reserve
- France
- Germany
- Italy
- Japan
- Mortgage Loans
- PIMCO
- POMO
- POMO
- Quantitative Easing
- Seth Klarman
- Unemployment
- Yen
It is only logical that when one of the smarter people in finance warns that he "sees bubbles everywhere" that he should be roundly ignored by those who have no choice but to dance. Because Bernanke and company are still playing the music with the volume on Max, and if not for POMO there is always FOMO. However, if there is any doubt why this "rally is the most hated ever", here are some insights from the Bond King from an interview with Bloomberg TV earlier today: "We see bubbles everywhere, and that is not to be dramatic and not to suggest they will pop immediately. I just suggested in the bond market with a bubble in treasuries and bubble in narrow credit spreads and high-yield prices, that perhaps there is a significant distortion there. Having said that, it suggests that as long as the FED and Bank of Japan and other Central Banks keep writing checks and do not withdraw, then the bubble can be supported as in blowing bubbles. They are blowing bubbles. When that stops there will be repercussions. It doesn't mean something like 2008 but the potential end of the bull markets everywhere. Not just in the bond market but in the stock market as well and a developing one in the house market as well."
As a gentle reminder, the reason why nobody anywhere trusts this particular bubble - the biggest in history - is not because speculators are not greedy (they are), or because everyone knows the market is always one central planner wrong move away from a collapse which would make the 2009 lows seem like amateur hour (it is), but because, as Seth Klarman explained two weeks ago, it is the Fed itself which by pushing on a string and the economy constantly deteriorating, proves it has no idea how to make things better: "When you tell the populace that we can all enjoy a free lunch of extremely low interest rates, massive Fed purchases of mounting treasury issuance, trillions of dollars of expansion in the Fed's balance sheet, and huge deficits far into the future, they are highly skeptical not because they know precisely what will happen but because they are sure that no one else--even, or perhaps especially, the policymakers—does either."
And today from Bill, on the reason why QE is not working as intended, and why the Fed's channels are not only clogged but never worked as intended in the past four years: "Does it mean it is a good thing that capitalism should thrive under this quantitative easing posture on the part of central banks that distorts markets and this court's capitalism and promotes a zombie corporations and lowers net interest margins and destroys business model? All of that is the negative aspects of quantitative easing. Can we live with? I do not think this will be with us for a long time."
On how distorted the bond marker is:
"It is easy on the bond side. We speak to an epical bond/bull market, not the beginning of a bear market but the ending of an epical bond/bull market show it in terms of a smiley face. It has been the investment committee. The bright side of the smile is the thirty year bull market in which prices rose exceeded what rationally could have been expected. We are at the bottom basically of this smiley face and our opinion on a long-term basis. That means with treasury yields and credit spreads, importantly and here is the key to the bond market statement: treasuries are 80 basis points, credit spreads are 70 basis points, put them together, 150 basis points in combination. In our opinion, absent of an additional amount of quantitative easing treasuries will go down in yield because of slowing economy, but that will make spreads go up. This suggests a 20-Month time ahead in which treasury, corporate, and high yields do not move much. The end of the smiley face all market run in terms of higher yields and lower prices is over.
On whether the conditions today are reminiscent of what we saw in 1992 and 1993:
"I do not think so, because in 1994 the FED raised funds dramatically to 200 basis points to basically slow things down. If the FED did that this time, I think they know with this amount of leverage there is two to three times more leverage in this economy this time than in 1994, the FED does not dare move in 200 basis point increments. That kind of market to our way of thinking is not in store for us. Does it mean it is a good thing that capitalism should thrive under this quantitative easing posture on the part of central banks that distorts markets and this court's capitalism and promotes a zombie corporations and lowers net interest margins and destroys business model? All of that is the negative aspects of quantitative easing. Can we live with? I do not think this will be with us for a long time. For the next 12-24, perhaps.
On when the Federal Reserve will start to taper the billions of dollars in bond purchases:
"It is almost a day-to-day thing in terms of the market but certainly not in the terms of the FED. They had objectives in terms of 6.5% unemployment and importantly, 2.5% inflation. We're down to 1 percent inflation in terms of the PCE which is their target for inflationary measure. To think the fed would begin to pull back in terms of tapering when inflation is approaching the Japanese levels of the lost decade is a big stretch. I do not think they change much. I think they have to be concerned about what happens in asset markets. Up until this point the chairman has done an Alan Greenspan and said cannot really relieve him as such but will monitor them in terms of potential regulation. However, having said that, I think the FED basically is on hold for a long time until unemployment and more certainly, inflation moves higher to the 2.5% target.
On the implications of the end of the 30-year bull market in treasury:
"It is not just treasuries. Treasuries, corporates, high-yield. We actually saw the end of the treasury market about six months ago. I think only a few weeks ago when you put the whole enchilada together, what does it mean going forward? It means as interest rates eventually go up, we do not think they are going up for 12 months or so, that the cost of interest for them move forward. And the portly, households will increase as well. Because of the lag effect in terms of the average cost of debt for corporations, and even government, there is a fair amount of room in terms of timing, even as interest rates move back up. Treasury yields on average are above 2%. In terms of what they're issuing it is closer to 1%. Same thing in terms of relative magnitude on the front of corporatations and households. It will be a while until this "smiley face" where higher interest rates begin to affect corporations and the credit sector as well as the government sector in terms of the cost of leverage in the cost of borrowing. Eventually, a net interest margins narrow on the part of corporations because they will hire in terms of interest. Same things for households they pay higher for mortgage loans. That is two to three, four years out. We don't have to worry about it yet, but we have to worry about it.
On the great experiment and what is happening in Japan right now in the shift:
"We want to be able to monitor in the Tokyo office. They are in touch with the institutions in Tokyo. We want to be able to monitor where the money is going. Our sense is not much of it, some of it, is going outside the country. The metaphor for the Japanese small investor, Mr or Mrs. Watanabe, when she or he begins to sense there are more attractive yields outside of Japan and the Japanese Yen moving lower in the yields and lower in price that they can capture a higher total return by moving outside that is where they will go. We want to get in front of them so to speak. Where will they go? Typically they went to the Euro and bought a lot of France and Germany. Those markets we think our extended close to zero. Italy and Spain perhaps at the periphery. And back to the good ol' United States. We think it will buy treasury bonds at 80 basis points above the five-year and close to 1.90 or so for the 10-year treasury. It does not sound like a deal, but a much better field in Japan.
* * *
So to summarize: the great bond bull market is over, but Japan will buy everything about 1.90% on the 10 Year. Perhaps this is why, somewhat counterinuitively, Pimco has been buying up every Treasury it could find in the past 6 months, or around the time Pimco "saw the end of the treasury market about six months ago." Just in case someone takes Bill a little too literally.
Europe's EUR 500 Billion Ticking NPLTime Bomb
- European Central Bank
- Germany
- Greece
- Ireland
- Italy
- Monetary Policy
- non-performing loans
- Portugal
- Unemployment
Europe's non-performing loan problem is such an issue that there is increasing bluster that the ECB may take this garbage on to its balance sheet since policymakers realize that bad debts andnon-performing loans (NPLs) reduce the capacity of banks to lend, hindering the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Bad debts consume capital and make banks more risk averse, especially with respect to lending to higher risk borrowers such as SMEs. With Italy (NPLs 13.4%) now following the same dismal trajectory of Spain's bad debts, the situation israpidly escalating (at an average of around 2.5% increase per year).
As we discussed in detail here, the bottom line is that at its core, it is all simply a bad-debt problem, and the more the bad debt, the greater the ultimate liability impairments become, including deposits. As we answered at the time - the real question in Europe is: how much impairment capacity is there in the various European nations before deposits have to be haircut? With Periphery non-performing loans totaling EUR 720bn across the whole of the Euro area in 2012 and EUR 500bn of which were with Peripheral banks, it seems the Cyprus deposit haircut non-template may indeed become the key template.
Simply put, the greater the unemployment the more the strain on banks to generate "profits" by any means possible (GGBS?) to cover the capitalization shortfall from NPLs until at some point liability haircuts have to begin...
Non-performing loans as % of total loans across the Euro area
Unemployment rates across Euro area countries
Via JPMorgan:
It is not surprising that the periphery is exhibiting a rising pattern in terms of NPL ratios. What is worrying is the speed of increase, at 2.5% per year. Within the periphery, Greece is the outlier with a NPL ratio of 25%, and no signs of abating yet. Ireland follows with a NPL ratio of 19%. Italy (at 13.4%) is above Spain and Portugal (at close to 10%)...The German divergence is making the task of the ECB very difficult both in terms of setting monetary policy for the whole region, but also in terms of dealing with an impaired transmission outside Germany. Draghi clarified in its latest press conference that it is not the ECB’s role to clean up banks’ balance sheets, meaning that the ECB is unlikely to deal itself with the €500bn large non-performing loan problem in periphery.
Venezuela Runs Out Of Toilet Paper
To vaguely paraphrase Mike Tyson, "everyone has a plan for a socialist utopia, until they run out of toilet paper."
This is just what happened to Venezuela, where in the image vacuum left following the death of leader Hugo Chavez, things are rapidly falling apart for the oil-rich country. And just like in the US, it's Bush's fault, or at least the local such equivalent.
AP reports: "First milk, butter, coffee and cornmeal ran short. Now Venezuela is running out of the most basic of necessities — toilet paper. Blaming political opponents for the shortfall, as it does for other shortages, the embattled socialist government says it will import 50 million rolls to boost supplies. That was little comfort to consumers struggling to find toilet paper on Wednesday. “This is the last straw,” said Manuel Fagundes, a shopper hunting for tissue in downtown Caracas. “I’m 71 years old and this is the first time I’ve seen this.” One supermarket visited by The Associated Press in the capital on Wednesday was out of toilet paper. Another had just received a fresh batch, and it quickly filled up with shoppers as the word spread. “I’ve been looking for it for two weeks,” said Cristina Ramos. “I was told that they had some here and now I’m in line.”
All of this this is quite surprising: because while one may not be able eat gold, one may certainly use fiat, especially fiat of any regime in the last throes of economic collapse and where staggered currency devaluation is now a periodic fact, as precisely the noted commodity in short supply.
Artist's conception of what the country's TP (single-ply) may soon look like: all it would take are a few more sequential devaluations.
More:
Economists say Venezuela’s shortages stem from price controls meant to make basic goods available to the poorest parts of society and the government’s controls on foreign currency.“State-controlled prices — prices that are set below market-clearing price — always result in shortages. The shortage problem will only get worse, as it did over the years in the Soviet Union,” said Steve Hanke, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.President Nicolas Maduro, who was selected by the dying Hugo Chavez to carry on his “Bolivarian revolution,” claims that anti-government forces, including the private sector, are causing the shortages in an effort to destabilize the country.The government this week announced it would import 760,000 tons of food and 50 million rolls of toilet paper.Commerce Minister Alejandro Fleming blamed the shortage of toilet tissue on “excessive demand” built up as a result of “a media campaign that has been generated to disrupt the country.”“The revolution will bring the country the equivalent of 50 million rolls of toilet paper,” he was quoted as saying Tuesday by state news agency AVN. “We are going to saturate the market so that our people calm down.”Finance Minister Nelson Merentes said the government was also addressing the lack of foreign currency, which has resulted in the suspension of foreign supplies of raw materials, equipment and spare parts to Venezuelan companies, disrupting their production.“We are making progress … we have to work very hard,” Merentes told reporters Wednesday.Many factories operate at half capacity because the currency controls make it hard for them to pay for imported parts and materials. Business leaders say some companies verge on bankruptcy because they cannot extend lines of credit with foreign suppliers.Merentes said the government had met the U.S. dollar requests of some 1,500 small- and medium-sized companies facing supply problems, and was reviewing requests from a similar number of larger companies.Chavez imposed currency controls a decade ago trying to stem capital flight as his government expropriated large land parcels and dozens of businesses.Anointed by Chavez as his successor before the president died from cancer, Maduro won a close presidential election April 14 against opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, who refused to accept the result, claiming Maduro won through fraud and voter intimidation. He filed a complaint to the Supreme Court, asking for the vote to be annulled, though that’s highly unlikely to happen since the court is packed with government-friendly justices.
Still, central planning refuses to be defeated in the face of the TP crisis:
Fleming, the commerce minister, said monthly consumption of toilet paper was normally 125 million rolls, but that current demand “leads us to think that 40 million more are required.”“We will bring in 50 million to show those groups that they won’t make us bow down,” he said.
Alternatively, if the government is not merely paranoid, and if indeed this is just another CIA-inspired tactic to overthrow the government, then the Langley brain trust will have redeemed itself for the recent humiliation in Russia by showing the world it can truly think outside of the toilet box.
end
Looks like Latvia is joining Greece as they face deflation as the monetary European union continues to slump:
(courtesy zero hedge)
end
Looks like Latvia is joining Greece as they face deflation as the monetary European union continues to slump:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Latvia Joins Greece In Deflation As EU Inflation Slumps
Inflation slowed in 24 (of 27) EU nations in April to leave the average EU rate at 1.4% (versus 1.9% in March). Greece entered deflation in March for the first time in 45 years and Latvia consumer prices fell 0.4% in April (versus +2.8% a year ago). This notable plunge, while 'helpful' for the average spender in the short-term, is a problem, as Bloomberg's Niraj Shah notes,sustained falling prices will increase the nation's debt burden. At the other end of the spectrum, Romania and Estonia both have inflation running above 4% and 3% respectively. Of course, none of this serial 'depression' matters, since Draghi has your back and Hollande says "the crisis is over."
Early Friday morning currency crosses (7 am)
Early Friday morning currency crosses (7 am)
Friday morning we see a tiny bit of euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Thursday with this time still trading well above the 1.28 mark at 1.2876. The yen this morning, is still bleeding profusely against the dollar, trading 102.43 yen to the dollar. The pound, this morning is a touch stronger against the USA dollar, remaining well below the 1.53 column at 1.5246. The Canadian dollar currency is also a lot weaker against the dollar at 1.0246. We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly risk on situation with most of our European bourses in the green. The Nikkei exchange was also way up this morning having received the signal of a lower yen. Gold and silver are lower in the early morning, with gold trading at $1381.10 (down $6.00) and silver is at $22.56 down 8 cents in early morning European trading.
The USA index is way up this morning by 14 cents at 83.88
Euro/USA 1.2876 down .0008
USA/yen 102.43 up 0.27
GBP/USA 1.5246 down .0034
USA/Can 1.0246 up .0066
end
And now your closing Spanish 10 year bond yield: ( down 10 in yield)
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE
GSPG10YR:IND
4.210.10 2.35%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/17/2013.
end
Your Italian 10 year bond yield; (lower by 08 in yield )
Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield
GBTPGR10:IND
3.900.08 2.04%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/17/2013.
end
Key crosses Friday 5 pm:
The Euro weakened terribly Friday afternoon closing just below the 1.29 mark at 1.2826. The yen also weakened a lot in the afternoon finally climbing above the 1.03 mark at 10315. The pound weakend considerably from this morning , closing below the 1.52 barrier at 1.5168. The Canadian dollar also weakened considerably this afternoon from this morning against the dollar closing at 1.0285.
Friday morning we see a tiny bit of euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Thursday with this time still trading well above the 1.28 mark at 1.2876. The yen this morning, is still bleeding profusely against the dollar, trading 102.43 yen to the dollar. The pound, this morning is a touch stronger against the USA dollar, remaining well below the 1.53 column at 1.5246. The Canadian dollar currency is also a lot weaker against the dollar at 1.0246. We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly risk on situation with most of our European bourses in the green. The Nikkei exchange was also way up this morning having received the signal of a lower yen. Gold and silver are lower in the early morning, with gold trading at $1381.10 (down $6.00) and silver is at $22.56 down 8 cents in early morning European trading.
The USA index is way up this morning by 14 cents at 83.88
Euro/USA 1.2876 down .0008
USA/yen 102.43 up 0.27
GBP/USA 1.5246 down .0034
USA/Can 1.0246 up .0066
end
And now your closing Spanish 10 year bond yield: ( down 10 in yield)
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE
GSPG10YR:IND
4.210.10 2.35%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/17/2013.
end
Friday morning we see a tiny bit of euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Thursday with this time still trading well above the 1.28 mark at 1.2876. The yen this morning, is still bleeding profusely against the dollar, trading 102.43 yen to the dollar. The pound, this morning is a touch stronger against the USA dollar, remaining well below the 1.53 column at 1.5246. The Canadian dollar currency is also a lot weaker against the dollar at 1.0246. We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly risk on situation with most of our European bourses in the green. The Nikkei exchange was also way up this morning having received the signal of a lower yen. Gold and silver are lower in the early morning, with gold trading at $1381.10 (down $6.00) and silver is at $22.56 down 8 cents in early morning European trading.
The USA index is way up this morning by 14 cents at 83.88
Euro/USA 1.2876 down .0008
USA/yen 102.43 up 0.27
GBP/USA 1.5246 down .0034
USA/Can 1.0246 up .0066
end
And now your closing Spanish 10 year bond yield: ( down 10 in yield)
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE
GSPG10YR:IND
4.210.10 2.35%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/17/2013.
end
Friday morning we see a tiny bit of euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Thursday with this time still trading well above the 1.28 mark at 1.2876. The yen this morning, is still bleeding profusely against the dollar, trading 102.43 yen to the dollar. The pound, this morning is a touch stronger against the USA dollar, remaining well below the 1.53 column at 1.5246. The Canadian dollar currency is also a lot weaker against the dollar at 1.0246. We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly risk on situation with most of our European bourses in the green. The Nikkei exchange was also way up this morning having received the signal of a lower yen. Gold and silver are lower in the early morning, with gold trading at $1381.10 (down $6.00) and silver is at $22.56 down 8 cents in early morning European trading.
The USA index is way up this morning by 14 cents at 83.88
Euro/USA 1.2876 down .0008
USA/yen 102.43 up 0.27
GBP/USA 1.5246 down .0034
USA/Can 1.0246 up .0066
Friday morning we see a tiny bit of euro weakness against the dollar from the close on Thursday with this time still trading well above the 1.28 mark at 1.2876. The yen this morning, is still bleeding profusely against the dollar, trading 102.43 yen to the dollar. The pound, this morning is a touch stronger against the USA dollar, remaining well below the 1.53 column at 1.5246. The Canadian dollar currency is also a lot weaker against the dollar at 1.0246. We have the sentiment this morning with a mainly risk on situation with most of our European bourses in the green. The Nikkei exchange was also way up this morning having received the signal of a lower yen. Gold and silver are lower in the early morning, with gold trading at $1381.10 (down $6.00) and silver is at $22.56 down 8 cents in early morning European trading.
The USA index is way up this morning by 14 cents at 83.88
Euro/USA 1.2876 down .0008
USA/yen 102.43 up 0.27
GBP/USA 1.5246 down .0034
USA/Can 1.0246 up .0066
end
And now your closing Spanish 10 year bond yield: ( down 10 in yield)
SPANISH GOVERNMENT GENERIC BONDS - 10 YR NOTE
GSPG10YR:IND
4.210.10 2.35%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/17/2013.
end
Your Italian 10 year bond yield; (lower by 08 in yield )
Italy Govt Bonds 10 Year Gross Yield
GBTPGR10:IND
3.900.08 2.04%
As of 11:59:00 ET on 05/17/2013.
end
Key crosses Friday 5 pm:
Key crosses Friday 5 pm:
The Euro weakened terribly Friday afternoon closing just below the 1.29 mark at 1.2826. The yen also weakened a lot in the afternoon finally climbing above the 1.03 mark at 10315. The pound weakend considerably from this morning , closing below the 1.52 barrier at 1.5168. The Canadian dollar also weakened considerably this afternoon from this morning against the dollar closing at 1.0285.
The USA index rose back big time this afternoon from the morning session with the final index number up 03 cents to 84.22
Euro/USA 1.2826 down .0060
USA/Yen 103.15 up 0.99
GBP/USA 1.5168 down .0112
USA/Can 1.0285 up .0104
end.
Euro/USA 1.2826 down .0060
USA/Yen 103.15 up 0.99
GBP/USA 1.5168 down .0112
USA/Can 1.0285 up .0104
Your closing figures from Europe today.
i) England/FTSE up 35.76 .80%
ii) Paris/CAC up 22.20 or .08%
iii) German DAX: up 28.13 points or .34%
iv) Spanish ibex up 40.10 or .47%
v) Italian bourse (MIB) up 60.60 .35%
and the Dow down 121.18 points .40%
v) Italian bourse (MIB) up 60.60 .35%
end.
And now for USA news:
In USA news, the Michigan confidence number soars:
Michigan Confidence Soars To Highest Since 2007, Biggest Beat Of Expectations On Record
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 10:09 -0400
In a day devoid of any A-grade economic data, the stop hunting GETCO USDJPY algos had no choice but to look forward to such reflexive C-grade indicators as the UMich Consumer Confidence index, where the polled "consumers" are confident if the market is up and the market is up if "consumers" are confident. Sure enough, the USDJPY literally exploded by over 50 pips and broke the 103 level (send the Yen derivative, the S&P500 spiking) when moments ago the UMich index posted a hilarious reading of 83.7, the highest since August 2007, up from 76.4, and smashing expectations of 77.9 by the most in... ever. Whether this was driven by a near record low in consumer savings, by the collapse in real wages, by the deteriorating Q1 retail results such as WalMart's showing consumers are out of cash, or if all this was irrelevant as everyone on the UMichigan rolodex was long Tesla is unknown. It just is what it is because in a world in which collapsing economic data leads to a record high "market", one buys first, buys second, then BTFD if there is D, and only then are questions asked.
Finally, if there is any confusion if consumer "confidence" tracks the market or the economy, we represent our chart from yesterday showing the now unprecedented divergence between the actual economic metrics and stocks.
end.
And now for USA news:
In USA news, the Michigan confidence number soars:
Michigan Confidence Soars To Highest Since 2007, Biggest Beat Of Expectations On Record
In a day devoid of any A-grade economic data, the stop hunting GETCO USDJPY algos had no choice but to look forward to such reflexive C-grade indicators as the UMich Consumer Confidence index, where the polled "consumers" are confident if the market is up and the market is up if "consumers" are confident. Sure enough, the USDJPY literally exploded by over 50 pips and broke the 103 level (send the Yen derivative, the S&P500 spiking) when moments ago the UMich index posted a hilarious reading of 83.7, the highest since August 2007, up from 76.4, and smashing expectations of 77.9 by the most in... ever. Whether this was driven by a near record low in consumer savings, by the collapse in real wages, by the deteriorating Q1 retail results such as WalMart's showing consumers are out of cash, or if all this was irrelevant as everyone on the UMichigan rolodex was long Tesla is unknown. It just is what it is because in a world in which collapsing economic data leads to a record high "market", one buys first, buys second, then BTFD if there is D, and only then are questions asked.
Finally, if there is any confusion if consumer "confidence" tracks the market or the economy, we represent our chart from yesterday showing the now unprecedented divergence between the actual economic metrics and stocks.
end.
Yesterday we reported to you on WalMart as this company is signalling a USA slowdown:
(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)
Yesterday we reported to you on WalMart as this company is signalling a USA slowdown:
(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Research Capital)
Wal-Mart Warns of a Slowdown
If you want to get a sense of what’s happening in the world, your best bet is to ignore Government data and focus on corporate revenues.
Why revenues? Because earnings can be massaged any number of ways (depreciation methods, laying off staff to cut costs, depletion of loan loss reserves for banks, etc.). But you cannot fake actual money coming in the door.
With that in mind, I want to draw your attention to the recent drop in corporate revenues at a number of corporations including Proctor and Gamble, Starbucks, AT&T, CB Richard Ellis, Safeway, American Express, IBM.
If this doesn’t serve as evidence that real economy falling to pieces, I don’t know what does. To top it off, we can now add Wal-Mart, the single largest retailer, to the list. Wal-Mart just reported that same-store sales fell 1.4%.
This is the first time this has happened in six quarters.
So much for the “recovery” theory. If you look at the realeconomy, things are getting worse and worse. When even Wal-Mart reports that people are spending less (remember that corporate email that February sales were a “disaster”?) you KNOW things are bad.
Folks, something awful is brewing in the economy. And yet, against this backdrop, stocks continue to rally hard. This bubble is worse than anything I’ve seen in my career, including the 2007 top.
For more market insights visit us at www.gainspainscapital.com
Best Regards
Graham Summers
end.
After Labour Day it looks like we get a repeat of 2011:
(courtesy zero hedge)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2013 17:28 -0400
well that about does it for this week
I will see you Monday night.
Harvey
After Labour Day it looks like we get a repeat of 2011:
(courtesy zero hedge)
The Debt Ceiling Is Back
- Ben Bernanke
- Bond
- Debt Ceiling
- default
- Excess Reserves
- Fannie Mae
- Freddie Mac
- Medicare
- Obama Administration
- Primary Market
- Reality
While many may not recall that the US has been without an official debt ceiling for the past three months, or even that ithas a debt target ceiling, the bonus period agreed upon in January to let the nation rake up some $400 billion in addition debt in the past few months, officially runs out tomorrow, May 19, when the debt limit will be restored to its previous level plus the debt that was incurred in the interim, which means around $16.735 trillion in total debt as of yesterday, plus the amount incurred today, excluding the debt not subject to the cap which is about $30 billion. And since no grand bargain is forthcoming in a world in which official governance is now almost universally in the hands of the world's central bankers and out of the hands of the theatrical career politicians, it means that the next deadline in the endless US debt ceiling saga will be the day when the extraordinary measures to extend the debt ceiling run out.
Such a deadline will likely be hit in just over three months. As the WSJ reports:
Mr. Lew said the Treasury would be able to use the same extraordinary measures that the department deployed during the last debt-ceiling standoff at the start of the year. Those include halting investments in government worker retiree funds and drawing down some accounts.“Treasury is not able to provide a specific estimate of how long the extraordinary measures will last,” Mr. Lew said.But because of strong tax receipts and billions of dollars in dividend payments from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac the U.S. will be able to continue borrowing–and paying all of its bills–until after Labor Day, Mr. Lew said.
September 2 happens to be a rather interesting day: just after the August Jackson Hole symposium where Bernanke will be famously absent, and just before the September FOMC meeting at which the Fed may (or may not) announce it is tapering QE (and when according the current run rate, the S&P should be roughly in the 1800 ballpark).
The song and dance is well-known:
If the Treasury exhausts the extraordinary measures and Congress doesn’t raise the debt limit, the government would be forced to fund its operations with the cash it has on hand, potentially putting Social Security, Medicare, military salaries and other payments at risk.“The global economic leadership position enjoyed by the United States rests on the confidence of Americans and people around the world that we are a nation that keeps its promises and pays all of its bills, in full and on time,” Mr. Lew said.Republicans have argued that the Treasury could prioritize to ensure that the government doesn’t default on bond payments. Mr. Lew rejected such an option, saying it would be “unwise, unworkable, unacceptably risky.”Mr. Lew said that the Obama administration would not negotiate with Congress over the debt ceiling.
The good news is that as a result of an acceleration in government receipts and modest slowdown in spending (however temporary), the immediate cash needs of the government are lower, even though they once again pick up in the last quarter of fiscal 2013 (July-Sept), when marketable borrowings are expected to increase by a fresh $223 billion. The other issue of course is that without the Treasury creating "collateral" (read government debt to fund a deficit) which the Fed can monetize and expand bank reserves in the primary market, the Fed risks to become far too dominant a holder of Treasurys which it would then have to buy from the secondary market, and in the process eliminate even more liquidity from the market. This means that implicitly, Congress will be given a green light to spend away at will, even as Bernanke rages, very theatrically, against the will to generate sound fiscal policy.Bernanke's whole spiel is to create as many billions in excess reserves as he can thus pushing stocks, pardon the "wealth effect" as high as possible, for which he desperately needs a profligate Congress.
Which brings us to the bad news, namely that while many expected a bipartisan compromise on the debt ceiling to be quick and easy, especially in the aftermath of the GOP humiliation from the end of 2012 and early 2013, the events of the past week, which have seen scandal after scandal unfold in the Obama camp, have drastically changed the equation, and suddenly the resurgent GOP may once again play hardball with both the president and the democrats, at just the time when some are starting to throw around the "I" word. And if there is anything that the Obama camp would want to avoid, it is another debt ceiling fiasco at a time when all plates are full as is.
Does that mean a replay of August 2011 is in the cards? It would be oddly symmetric. And yet, that would presuppose that the GOP and the democrats truly have divergent agendas, when in reality both parties are eagerly willing to spend as much as possible in the name of "the people" and both are eager fans of a government that is as big as possible.
And finally, we now live in a day and age when the legislative and the executive are sorry shadows of their former selves, and the only true branch of government, is the monetary (in other words Wall Street). And Wall Street will only let the market drop when it is well and ready, and when it is confident it has transferred enough paper wealth into hard assets, and not a moment sooner.
end
well that about does it for this week
I will see you Monday night.
Harvey
